It’s here, Banterers! Oscar week, that is. Do you feel it? The air is filled with more particles of excitement, people are nicer as they await the big day, and I’ve been waking up an hour earlier everyday. Now that I think about it, Oscar week is just like the night before a big trip to Disneyland– everything is just so exciting and sleeping becomes the only barrier between you and a whole day of fun.

So yes, the Oscars are on the horizon, the very near horizon at that. And you know what that means?! The predictions are getting more real and more serious. So, I thought I would take a stab at the Best Actress category as this is one of my most favorite Oscar categories, but also the one I tend to take issue with the most (I mean, come on– Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side?! REALLY?!).

So, this year we have quite an exciting lot to choose from. Glenn Close is up for her role in Albert Nobbs where she poses as a man in 19th Century Ireland in order to secure a job at a nice hotel. Viola Davis was nominated for her role in The Help where she plays an overlooked maid in the very segregated and very radicalized South. Rooney Mara is up for her, frankly badass, performance in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Meryl Streep (surprise, surprise) was nominated for her take on Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. And finally, with Michelle Williams being nominated for her turn as Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marilyn, it seems to be a year heavy with Oscar-worthy impersonations.

So, those are the nominees in all their glory. Leaving aside my absolute shock and horror that Tilda Swinton managed to evade an ever-so-coveted spot on this list, the rest of the nominees were pretty much expected. It goes without saying that Meryl Streep could be in a movie and not be nominated, given how much the Academy and movie-goers alike (me included) love her. And while I think she is one of the front runners out of this list, I really don’t see her winning. It seems unlikely that both Michelle Williams and Rooney Mara don’t stand any real chance. Both women are young and in the category of “it was just an honor to be recognized.” With a category filled with heavy hitters, I likely expect the Academy to write these two women off as having the rest of their lives to win this accolade, especially since this is Rooney Mara’s first ever nomination.

Glenn Close poses an interesting case. This marks Close’s sixth nomination, and her sixth one without any bite. Could this be the year that her publicists win and the Academy gives her an “if not now, then when” award?

While this is a definite possibility, I think I’ll save my betting money, for the last but certainly not least, contender. Yes, Viola Davis is who I’m counting on. I mean, let’s be real– the Academy has already proven time and again their undying love of any movie that pretends to deal with race in any real way (uh, The Blindside, Crash, etc.), and it’s highly unlikely that it would take home the best picture award. Moreover, if other award shows are to be believed (as they usually should), Davis seems to be the only one who poses any sort of threat to Meryl Streep. And with Streep giving Viola Davis her own Oscar blessing during Streep’s Golden Globe acceptance speech, it really seems like the most viable option.

So, I’m counting on you Davis. I really am. Is this the best choice? Honestly, I think Rooney Mara may be the most deserving, but also the least likely candidate. So Viola Davis it is. Good night and good luck.